General Elections 2015: Preliminary Geo-Political Permutations

by ahjotnaija

Nigerians are permanently fired up when it is election time; at least the majority. They know election is the best tool to rid themselves of failed governments and particularly politicians who promised what they cannot fulfill. This is exactly the reason why they do not take it lightly when it is election time. They know it is their only chance to try again.

There are those among them who collect money for their vote and vote the other way, and some vote the party who bribed them. Nigeria’s electorate is one dynamic phenomenon that must be understood. There are times they even vote to make a statement- think of Ekiti. Apparently, those on ground knew something was not alright with Dr. Fayemi’s approach to governance. Governor Fayose was not the best hand on offer on election day, but Dr. Fayemi was neither a of messianic material, so he was let to fall. Fayose cruised to victory carried on the back of the people, plus supported by President Jonathan’s band of army and police officers. Shared rice or similar incentives are of secondary relevance in this matter. After all, both camps shared rice.

In the ongoing campaign for the presidency, the voice of the people cannot be mistaken. It is clearly a total NO to a government with no clear-cut approach to anything. Truth be told, President Jonathan has no agenda at all. He is only interested in sitting out his terms of office. Everything about him is a confirmation of this fact. The people do not want him. If they really wanted General Buhari is a different matter entirely. President Jonathan’s grave incompetence is the best reason to replace him, even if with a carbon-copy of himself, so far it is not a return of the original person!

Lets get real for once, the supporters of the incumbent are not doing so based on the quality he has to offer. Not all at. I agree with Mr. Olumhense’s submission on the matter- awon-ajegundujera i.e. profiters of/from Jonathan’s ultra-corrupt government are the only elements in that camp. Add to that, many stand with him notwithstanding his enormous failure based on personal principles, herein comes the eyele-principle very handy to describe their plight. This proverbial faithful bird will not desert his master no matter what. Think of Dr. Abati and the picture is perfect. I respect this careless choice. But I respect Nigeria and care about her way too far. Another group of teeming supporters are the PDP-remnants, the die-hard core PDP-ers. PDP is way too strong to not have this kind of fight-till-death-membership. All these people shall vote the PDP and Jonathan in February. Are they enough to win him the presidency? Capital NO.

Lets permutate geopolitically: The Southwest is securely in Asiwaju Tinubu’s pocket. APC shall win with a landslide in the Southwest. The mood right now is comparable to 1999 when Alliance for Democracy (AD) won nearly all seats leaving remnants for the PDP. If you don’t believe me, ask the person beside you to wake you up to reality.

The Southwest as a voting bloc has a history of voting and sticking together. Call it anything, this is who they are. At the moment, this geopolitical zone is best insulted when a party throws Jonathan at them for another four years. They voted, on Tinubu’s prompt, overwhemingly for Jonathan, not PDP, in the 2011 election. The incumbent did not deserve a return because he failed woefully. Add to that, this strongest political voice at the moment, upon whose body language Jonathan was elected, is no more in doubt that Jonathan is a big shame. In short, Jonathan and PDP’s political death are surer than night and day in the Southwest, at least till 2019.

PDP shall win minimal votes in the North. The North has three geopolitical zones. These zones shall vote overwhemingly for General Buhari. The reasons are far too obvious to be debated. Think of General Buhari coming from Katsina (Northeast). Jonathan only helps the ease of deciding finally for Buhari in that part of the country with his failed attempts to secure the freedom of the stolen girls, fight Boko Haram and stop the bombings threatening to destabilize the fragile peace in the states. We must not forget also that Kogi and Kwara, two states in Northcentral are most likely to vote along the Southwest bloc. The likelihood of a landslide victory for APC in the North is at an all-time high. Political betters who bet on General Buhari in the North may start counting their political chickens.

The Southsouth is presently not in Jonathan’s grip alone. Not only Rotimi Amaechi, but far too many politicians in the region envy the incumbent. And they do not hide their beef for him. Yes, beef is allowed in politics! And by the way, is there anyone, who is not beefing President Jonathan at the moment? Even his staunchest supporters are in short supply of good reasons for their support. So, while one may want to call the Southsouth for the president already if PDP’s rigging-machineries worked well enough, there are far too many hands that will ensure APC won the zone. Mind you, among APC’s sponsors and moneybags are riggers per excellence! This geopolitical zone shall be hotly contended and the smartest will carry the day.

The sway-geopolitical zone, i.e. Southeast shall be won on a state by state basis. No bad-belle intended, but these states shall politically sell their votes to the highest bidder. Selling in this light does not involve money changing hands alone. Mark the qualifying adverb- politically! The idea is, since the Igbo will have neither the predidency nor vice, they will vote the party likely to give them better representation at the centre, plus improve the lot of the region via investments in infrastructures. Jonathan promised the Southeasterners too many things in 2011. That he practically spat in their face by not keeping the promises is a fact. Religion will play a decisive role in this part of the country, no doubt. However, this will be minimal. It is not going to be as decisive as in 2011. Plus there are indications the zone shall likely pay Jonathan back in his own coin, i.e. spit back at him in the face! Rev. Father Mbaka’s sermon is a wake-up call to reality.

Away from geopolitics, lets round-up on Jonathan’s campaign team. Two extremes in the team shall busy us shortly as jaara in this piece.

Chief Anenih, the cunniest and election-rigger-in-chief has met a match bigger than him in Chief Tinubu and APC combined. Sam-Ndah Isaiah’s piece on Chief Anenih is a worthy piece about a dishonourable end. A good slogan sums up the beautiful article: May our end not be like Chief Anenih and may we know when to die politically in peace!

Zeroing in on the most unfortunate choice in the team, Femi Fani-Kayode. That he made the team confirms the incumbent’s desperation. Fani-Kayode is a bastard, in that he has ruined all political goodwill of his father. I am sure Chief Fani-Kayode of blessed memory is weeping in the grave-beyond for his son’s political gone-haywire-lifestyle. Femi successfully destroyed whatever is politically left of the goodhouse he came from. He is presently a political-no-weight and thief. Here are two prayer-slogans derivable from Fani-Kayode: May we never be accursed with children like Femi Fani-Kayode’s directionless waywardness! And may fate not make us fathers of political longthroat and potential prisoner!

I will not pity Femi if after PDP’s loss, Jonathan or Madam Patience decided to sue Femi for campaign fraud. Plus his EFFC file reactivated, there shall be no escaping prison for Femi Fani-Kayode. His crying way too loud and acceptance to lead Jonathan’s assault are his last hope before a sure political-death. Chief Obasanjo knew him well. Hear OBJ: Femi is my boy, he will do anything once you give him food (paraphrased). Fact is: Femi Fani-Kayode has never won an election and is no strategist. His political greenhornery plus naivity far outweigh that of Ribadu.

So, why and how did President Jonathan end up in the hands of two counrtywide political thief and pretender? The answer is the mirror: The president is best advised to get one for himself!